Summer 2013 – Thoughts and Analysis

14 May

Well, here we are again…

We are progressing through May quite rapidly and after one of the coldest spring’s in a long time and particularly March, it certainly feels as though we have progressed a long way into the year already without anything of worth in terms of warmth and more prolonged settled conditions. The middle of May, in my opinion, is often the best time of year to produce some thoughts on the up coming summer period covering June, July and August. It should be noted at this point that summery conditions can and often do continue well into September, but September is classed as the first autumn month. I should also place emphasis at this point that long range forecasts and information are far from an exact science and this particular blog is here to provide some possible insight as to the expected weather this summer. Sometimes the weather can change days ahead, let alone weeks and months, so please use this information as a possible guide and nothing more.

The summer months are often a difficult period to look at. The reasons for this is that during the autumn and winter period there are often a large number of variables that can be looked at to gauge how the winter may pan out, so summer can be difficult as there are generally less variables to analyse.  It doesn’t come with much surprise that over the last number of years the “summers” across the UK have been particularly bad and this was emphasised spectacularly last summer in terms of the persistence of unsettled conditions and also cool conditions as well. There are clearly discussions and thoughts that perhaps “something” has change with the weather to now bring the UK poorer summers and colder winters. Clearly time will tell on that, but the natural variation and changes that often occur through the summer across the UK and the North Atlantic have indeed change in recent summers. The usual trend is for the Azores high pressure to become increasingly influential through the summer months and ridge north and eastwards up into the UK and north-west Europe in general. This often combines with the jet stream disappearing well to the north of the UK and thus bringing the UK some summer weather. Clearly this trend and usual progression has essentially been none-existent for the last 4 or 5 years at least.

So what about this summer?…

As is often the case certain variables can be looked at to get an idea of potential broader term patterns within the long term, not only that there are also a variety of forecast models as well which can be looked at including the likes of the recently improved CFSv2 model for example. My interpretation of the situation as it stands now is for the summer to generally be in keeping with the last few years and that is for higher pressure to be more influential to the north of the UK rather than the south and south-west and lower than average pressure could well be influential in and around the UK once again. Last summer was clearly spectacularly bad due to the persistence of the unsettled conditions.  Whilst a repeat cannot be ruled out, I don’t expect this summer to be as bad as last summer with at least some temporary spells of better weather.

Expected Pressure Anom:

chart modifications

High pressure could well be more influential to the north of the UK in general signaling an overall -NAO summer pattern as lower than average pressure potentially affects the UK and some other central and southern areas of Europe. There is evidence from some of the seasonal forecast models for both June and July to have an overall -NAO pattern, which again would likely lead to higher than average pressure, in some shape or form, to the north of the UK.Summer

Expected Temp Anom:

temps

The temperature forecast is particularly problematic and sometimes you can find significant variations across the UK, but as an idea I expect temperatures across the UK, in general, over the three summer months to be around or slightly below average by say 0C to 2C. The expected broader synoptic patterns don’t support a warmer than average summer and I don’t expect a sudden change from recent years for this summer to be dramatically warmer than average, so a near or slightly below average summer temperature wise is preferred.

Expected Precip Anom:

summer precip

With the signal for a possible -NAO dominated summer, or at least the majority of it, the end result could well be for the UK to experience more in the way of lower pressure than higher pressure once again. As a result this general trend and thought does then lead to the summer potentially being wetter than average, to what extent I am unsure. Clearly last summer was exceptionally wet not just for weeks, but for months, but I don’t expect a repeat performance at the present time.

Summary:

So in essence I am not expecting the summer of 2013 across the UK to be a spectacular improvement on recent summers. As I have mentioned clearly last summer was particularly poor to say the least and the odds of that being repeated this year are slim, so in theory some improvement is to be expected compared with last summer. However, there is just little evidence, in my opinion, that supports a markedly improved summer with high pressure dominant for a number of weeks and for some very warm or hot weather to be a frequent occurrence. So, as ever time will tell, but a distinct average summer is expected in my opinion. I look forward to reviewing this prediction come early September and again please read and use this blog as a potential idea as to the possible weather this summer and nothing more.

Regards to all,

M.

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