Mid-June to Mid-July…Thoughts & Analysis

19 Jun

With the days and weeks ticking by and the summer solstice just days away, the question on many people’s minds is; “when is summer going to arrive?…”

Clearly the last number of weeks have been very poor indeed for the time of year and that week or so of hot and sunny weather at the end of May is a long, distant memory unfortunately.  As I highlighted in my last blog (https://matthugo.wordpress.com/2012/06/08/flamin-june-and-not-because-its-hot/) this has primarily been down to the track of the jet stream, once again being much further south than it should be for the time of year and in-keeping with previous summers as well.

This blog is to focus attention on the remainder of June and take a look at the early part of July.  Unfortunately the outlook doesn’t look good.  What can be the case during the summer is that the pressure patterns become very ill-defined and dis-organised and this can sometimes make looking at the longer term very difficult indeed, particularly compared with autumn and winter when these pressure patters are often more defined.  However, it is interesting to note that there is a strong and consistent signal and unfortunately that signal is for low pressure to dominate.

The last few weeks have clearly been dominated by a trough-type pattern across the UK and many other north-western areas of Europe, whilst high pressure has been far more influential across parts of central and eastern Europe and given latest forecast data I expect that trend to continue now throughout the rest of June.  As with present day, a few better days are possible, but broadly speaking the rest of June looks low pressure dominated with further showers or longer spells of rain and with temperatures only reaching average values at best.

In summary, June 2012 could well go down as one of the wettest and coolest in many years and be one of the worst summer months in quite a long time.  I’m not a statistician, but clearly time will tell on this one, but no doubt many various pieces of information will be available by the end of the month highlighting this fact.  To summarise this pattern on forecast weather charts, the GFS and ECM ENS mean for the 28th/29th of month highlight this perfectly;

So, a new month and a change in the weather to go with the onset of July?…From my opinion the answer to that is no unfortunately and this is where a “don’t shoot the messenger” disclaimer may well be required!…

The longer range forecast models and the expected longer range trends leads me to believe that the pattern which June will end on will continue into the opening week or more of July, at least.  So that signals further unsettled conditions across the UK and that north-west corner of Europe, whilst higher pressure and summer-like weather remains firmly locked away to the south and the east of the country. The GFS ENS mean chart, now out to the 5th of July, has been consistently in agreement with the ECM ENS charts for low pressure and unsettled conditions to maintain themselves across the UK and the below chart highlights this;

Clearly, low pressure is dominating across the UK on the above chart, whilst pressure is higher to the south and east in general. Clearly from a meteorological perspective 2 to 4 weeks is a very, very long time and this signal, particularly as early July progresses could change.  However, what is of concern is that this signal for low pressure to continue to affect the UK is consistent and the longer range models haven’t wavered at all in terms of perhaps bringing a more settled and anticyclonic pattern to the UK.

So in summary, the unsettled conditions look set to continue, most certainly throughout the remainder of June, bar the odd day or two of better weather and that is likely to then continue into the opening week of July.  Clearly where we go from there, as I have highlighted above, is open to change given the time frames involved, but given the consistency of the signal for low pressure to persist across the UK then I wouldn’t be surprised if the first half of July remains unsettled and predominantly cool.  If that is the case then clearly we would need to see a significant improvement in conditions during the second half of July and into August to ‘rescue’ this summer…

Regards to all,

M.

 

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