What Lies Ahead for June 2012?…

25 May

Before looking forward I must comment on what has been and that is in direct relation to the last blog I produced and the weather of late.  The middle of the month update I issued, taking a look at the rest of May, has most certainly headed in the wrong direction.  What this clearly highlights is that even with some of the best forecast model data to hand, medium and long-term forecasting is, without question, open to changes and can often be very difficult to do.  I believe, in this instance, I may have been caught “ball watching” with regards to looking at a certain set of information but not seeing the full picture.  I suggest this because at the beginning of May the outlook for the second half of the month was towards higher pressure and I quote this below, which now looking back was a pretty darn good prediction at the time!;

“So to summarize.  The first half of the month, at least, looks set to be a predominantly unsettled one with further rain, showers and rather cool conditions.  Thereafter, the second half of the month and then perhaps more particularly the final quarter of the month may see a trend towards drier and warmer conditions.”

https://matthugo.wordpress.com/2012/05/01/may-2012-thoughts-analysis/

So, really I should have stuck with my original prediction, but as ever updated model data has to be acknowledged, but clearly this time round the finely balanced scenario which developed in the last week or more has clearly signaled a significant improvement in conditions.

So moving on and what does June, or at least the first half of June have to offer?…

At the moment I continue to support a theme towards lower pressure from the west after an initially settled opening week to June.  The below pressure patterns are what I believe are likely to be the case during the opening two weeks of the month, the first image essentially covering the 1st to the 7th and the second image the 8th to th 14th;

The second image may well look rather bleak from a UK perspective, but don’t take the image too literally.  What I am attempting to highlight is a simple trend towards lower pressure and more of a trough over the UK rather than significant high pressure.  Clearly during the summer months areas of low pressure are often far less ‘intense’ than during the autumn and winter months for example, so a progression towards a slack and perhaps convective pattern is what I believe will materialise after a settled and warm opening first week.

The GFS ENS also highlights this at the moment and the below two images tally well with the above graphics;

As can be seen the first image is showing a general ridge over the UK with surface high pressure out to the 5th of the month, which again essentially covers the opening week with dry, settled and often warm conditions overall.  However, the second image is showing that progression towards a more cyclonic pattern with more a trough over the UK.  Note how the orange colours on the first image in association with the upper level ridge and surface high pressure are replaced by lighter oranges and more of an upper level trough.

What does seem to be evident however is that despite this likely and/or possible trend towards a more cyclonic pattern I haven’t seen anywhere that suggests temperatures will drop to or below averages throughout the first half of June.  As a result I expect the first half of the month to be relatively warm, particularly the opening week with perhaps some very warm temperatures at times. The latest GFS ENS 850mb temperature graph for London, supports this prediction;

The second half of the month is shrouded in uncertainty.  As I highlighted in a previous blog during the summer months the pressure patterns become less distinctive than during the winter for example, so it is sometimes difficult to determine whether a more positive or negative pressure anomaly is expected.  However, I will put my neck on the line and suggest that after a potentially more unsettled mid-month, the second half of June may well see high pressure return and bring predominantly settled and warm conditions. This is based on some long-range forecast data but also a broader analysis of some seasonal forecast data as well, combining with what may well happen during the first half of June.

As ever, a mid-month update will be issued in mid-June to take a more detailed look at the second half of the month. Overall whilst the month may become quite changeable, generally June may well turn out to be a reasonable summer month, but as ever, time will tell…

Regards to all,

M.

 

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