Weekend Prospects (24th/25th) & The Rest of March…

21 Mar

In my last blog, I took at look at the medium to longer term scenario which essentially covered the rest of March and at that particular point all the signs and signals were pointing towards high pressure and anticyclonic conditions.  That trend and signal hasn’t changed and I’ll have another quick look and re-cap at the remainder of March after taking a look at the coming weekend…

Firstly we are now into spring, with the spring equinox taking place earlier in the day yesterday (20th) and the coming weekend looks set to produce a very spring-like spell of weather, as you would expect, due to high pressure…

Taking a look at this mornings 84hr chart from the UKMO along with the 120hr image from overnight, you can clearly see that high pressure develops into a significant feature over the weekend.  At this time frame there is still uncertainty over cloud amounts and for example that weak east or north-easterly flow evident on the 120hr chart may well produce more extensive cloud and cooler/chilly temperatures along the east coast of England.  In contrast, come inland, to parts of the Midlands, Wales and Northern England and Sunday looks very good indeed with pleasantly warm temperatures of around 15C or 16C and with plenty of sunshine. So what’s the reason for the high pressure?…

As is usually the case, the expected surface conditions can be traced back to the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere and the above information should give some background information as to why high pressure is forecast to be a dominant feature of the weather this weekend.  The other important feature to point out is that warm air advection (WAA) on the western flank of an area of high pressure often leads to the intensification and development of the surface high pressures.  You can see that on the first two images.  Note how on Saturday whilst evident the high pressure isn’t as developed as it is by Sunday and this is down to WAA taking place just to the west of the high pressure, and a few other ‘ingredients’ for good measure.

So in summary a decent weekend for many, but given the time of year there will be some exceptions and where there is any onshore breeze or airflow then those areas are likely to come off worse, but many inland areas of the UK look very pleasant indeed this weekend for late March.

The remainder of March is generally unchanged from when I looked at the situation a number of days ago and the below GFS and EC ENS mean at 240hr support the continued high pressure scenario;

So the remainder of March does indeed look anticyclonic, with further predominantly dry conditions leading to below or well below average rainfall totals and with temperatures generally above average overall.  There continues to be consistency however for a pattern change into early April and despite the time frames involved, I can say with some reasonable confidence that as the opening week of April progresses cooler, if not colder, and more unsettled conditions are likely to develop…

Regards to all,

M.

 

 

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