Medium to Longer Term Outlook – Rest of March 12

14 Mar

Well so far March has been quite a benign month with nothing really of any significance or great interest.  The primary and dominant feature of the weather overall so far has been high pressure and anticyclonic conditions and it would seem that within the medium to longer term, high pressure will remain, or at least re-develop, into a dominant feature…

The high pressure conditions of this week are set to decline for a brief period of time over the coming weekend as more unsettled and also colder conditions develop.  This change can be seen within the forecast jet stream patterns and the first image highlights what we have been having at present and compare that with this coming weekends jet stream pattern;

The information within these two images should help explain why we progress towards a more unsettled and cyclonic pattern and last nights 96hr FAX chart from the UKMO for example, clearly highlights a far more cyclonic pattern with low pressure, troughs and frontal systems evident over the weekend;

Moving beyond the coming weekend and into the final third or so of March and the primary question is; will we continue to see cyclonic and more unsettled conditions prevail across the UK? – The simple answer is; no we won’t…

The primary reason why, whilst referring back to the first image in this blog, is that as next week progresses the jet stream once again begins to ridge northwards across the UK and as a result surface pressure rises.  The below two images are the 240hr GFS and EC ENS charts, as you can see both signal a marked region of high pressure affecting the UK;

As you can see the 240hr time period is currently covering Saturday 24th of March.  So the medium to longer term outlook is one of high pressure and settled conditions, particularly away from the far north and west of the UK in particular, with unfortunately very little rainfall expected for England and Wales.  Now one of the talking points of recent days is the lack of sunshine, could this be the case with this next high pressure? – The answer is simply, yes it could…

Unfortunately it is impossible to be able to say with any degree of accuracy what amount of cloud will accompany this next anticyclonic spell.  Given the current broader pattern it does seem as though quite a lot of mild and moist air from the south 0r south-west will be associated with this high, which isn’t a good early sign, so at the moment it could well be another mild, but often cloudy spell of weather.

The generally settled conditions do look set to continue overall until the end of March, so in my opinion, particularly for England and Wales, this March looks like it will end up being a particularly dry month and also potentially quite a warm one as well, depending on sunshine amounts in subsequent weeks in particular.  The sunshine amounts are important at this time of year because without the sunshine temperatures can still be depressed beneath cloud as many have been experiencing in recent days.

So for those wanting rain, and lots of it, unfortunately it seems unlikely you’ll get any…at the far reaches of forecasting, there are early signs that the opening week of April may see something more unsettled and cooler, but this is a long way off as yet.

Regards to all,

M.

 

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One Response to “Medium to Longer Term Outlook – Rest of March 12”

  1. Tony William Powell March 19, 2012 at 10:12 am #

    Hi Matt,

    Just to make you aware, your chart links appear to be updating each day rather than being static examples.

    Keep up the good work.

    Kind Regards

    Tony Powell

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