Medium to Longer Term Outlook – Spring Sunshine!

5 Mar

Spring can often be a time for extremes across the UK.  The progression away from winter often leads to a greater risk of some milder conditions developing at times and clearly a progression away from long, dark nights.  However, some late winter weather can often return at times as well, but in this instance that isn’t the case.  The outlook is looking extremely promising indeed for those in need of some spring sunshine…

The early signs with regards to this up coming spell of high pressure dominated conditions was evident around 3 or 4 days ago, but at that time there was little model consistency at all over the specific synoptic evolution.  However, recent model runs, particularly in relation to the GFS and ECMWF ensembles have continued to show signs of high pressure become influential across many areas of the UK as we progress towards the middle of March.  Some of the global models are now also picking up on this signal which is likely to develop over the coming weekend….Find below a few charts of interest;

The above images are the UKMO and the ECMWF deterministic models at the 144hr time frame, which at the present time covers Sunday 11th of March.  As can be seen there is a marked area of high pressure becoming well established across the UK at this particular time, with surface pressures of at least 1035mb.  The other noticeable feature as well is for the potential development of some mild or very mild air from the south-west, this can be seen on the below chart in terms of the 850mb temperatures reaching at least +5C from the south-west;

As I highlighted there is model consistency and agreement for this synoptic pattern to develop now over the coming weekend and continue well into next week.  Whilst it is very difficult to say how long these anticyclonic conditions will carry on for, the longer range ensembles, at the moment, signal the settled conditions continuing until at least the 17th and 18th of March.  This pattern can be seen well within the GFS ensembles at the moment and take the following two images;

Just using London as an example, but note on the first image how there is a distinct lack of precipitation ‘spikes’ evident across the bottom of the graph throughout a large portion of the forecast period which takes us up to the 21st of March. Also of significance as well is the second image and the predicted pressure.  At the moment the ensemble mean (white line) has atmospheric pressures at or above 1020mb across London for the next 2 weeks!…

So what does all this mean?…Well in summary it would seem that the UK is going to progress towards a sustained period of anticyclonic conditions which will lead to sustained dry weather with some likely decent sunny spells at times and also some pleasantly warm days with temperatures potentially ranging between 12C and 15C into the early part of next week for example.  As ever, there is always a negative to a positive and from a drought point of view it does seem as though March could now well turn into a very dry month indeed for parts of England and Wales in particular…

If you don’t think spring has sprung just yet, you will do by this time next week!…

Regards to all,

M.

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