The Week Ahead – Monday 6th to Friday 10th February 12

5 Feb

Hello all and welcome to my first WordPress blog!…In this blog i’ll be taking a look at the week ahead across the UK and giving some general thoughts and analysis on the expected weather;

OVERVIEW:  The week ahead is forecast to produce a continued North and West, South and East split in the weather as high pressure and cold conditions dominate across England and Wales, whilst Scotland and Ireland experience milder and more unsettled conditions.

ANALYSIS:

Monday is the ‘odd day out’ so-to-speak.  The latest FAX chart below highlights a generally slack pressure gradient across the UK but with a warm front affecting Western regions of the UK.  A rather cloudy and damp day is forecast particualrly across Western regions of the UK with some rain or drizzle at times, whilst it is generally colder and drier further East.  The small arm and cold front through the Midlands is an interesting feature as this is highlighting a minor disturbance which could bring a wintry mix of rain, sleet and snow to parts of Central and Eastern areas of England for a time during the day.

As we progress through the week it is evident that high pressure to the East or North-east of the UK will influence the weather across England and Wales and re-introduce a dry and cold East or perhaps North-easterly air mass.  This can be seen on the below FAX chart for Wednesday;

What is also evident is the markedly different conditions across Scotland and Ireland.  Through the week the development of a fresh or perhaps strong south-westerly air mass along with some frontal zone is forecast to produce milder and more unsettled conditions with some rain or showers at times.  Precipitation may be wintry on high ground but generally rain is most likely.

The general North and West, South and East split in the weather is forecast to continue through to the end of the week and with perhaps these colder and drier conditions extending into Scotland and Ireland by the end of the week, but there is uncertainty surrounding that at the moment.  Given the predominantly high pressure conditions across the UK and the weak, but still cold, Continental feed than both daytime and overnight temperatures are forecast to be cold.  Take a look at the predicted Maximum Temperatures (left image) and Minimum Temperatures (right image) for Tuesday;

These temperature values are quite representative throughout the week, but I do expect that the GFS Det model may well be under-forecasting the Tmax temperatures across Eastern England at times.  Generally however, they do highlight that across Ireland for example Tmax may well be between 7C to 11C, whilst further East across England and Wales temperatures may well range between 0C and 3C.  Also notice the minimum temperatures with perhaps -4C to -8C likely through the week, particularly over any snow cover.  It should also be highlighted that widespread icy conditions are likely at times as well, especially where any surface snow melts and then re-freezes at night.

SUMMARY:  So if you’re in Scotland and Ireland unfortunately continued to expect milder, grey and damp conditions, whilst for many areas of England and Wales it’s more of the same!…Cold, predominantly dry (especially after Monday) and crisp with moderate or severe frosts by night and with temperatures depressed by day despite some bright or sunny spells.

Have a great week all!.  M.

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3 Responses to “The Week Ahead – Monday 6th to Friday 10th February 12”

  1. David February 5, 2012 at 9:44 am #

    Hi Matt, welcome to blogging!

    Thanks for your thoughts — all very interesting stuff. I look forward to reading more.

  2. Dave February 5, 2012 at 10:03 am #

    Thanks a million Matt, I will read this blog weekly for sure. Thanks for taking the time to do it.
    Dave.

  3. Leon February 5, 2012 at 11:16 am #

    cheers for the Matt…;)

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