Well the phrase “In like a lion, out like a lamb” could well sum up February by the looks. Clearly the first half of the month or the opening week or two experience a far different spell of weather than experience so far through the winter given a continental feed of cold or very cold air across the UK. The difference between earlier in the month and the coming week will be significant!…
The latest FAX chart for Thursday helps to highlight the reason why;
The synoptic evolution through this week will be characterised by high pressure to the south or south-west of the UK and low pressure systems developing and passing to the north and north-west through the week. The combination of these two synoptic features later in the week will be for the development of a very mild and moist south-westerly air mass from the Azores. I highlighted the usefulness of theta-e (equivalent potential temperature) in forecasting in a previous blog, but just to re-cap theta-e is a highly useful tool to determine different air masses with greens and yellows highlighting mild/very mild/moist air masses, whilst blues and pinks signal cold/very cold/dry air masses and as can be seen on the below image, Thursday’s very mild and moist south-westerly air mass is clearly evident!…
850mb temperatures are also set to rise as well to at least 5C to 7C, if not perhaps between 8C and 10C across parts of England and Wales later in the week;
So a very mild week ahead, unseasonably so for parts of England and Wales later in the week and the very cold conditions of early February are nothing more than a distant memory. Whilst focusing on temperatures here, it is also of worth to highlight that some particularly wet and windy conditions will effect parts of the north and west of the UK as well through the week as a series of frontal systems and low pressures affect these areas. So it’s not all plain-sailing and despite a likely spring-like feel in any brightness across central and southern areas of England by Thursday Scotland, Ireland and Northern England in particular look like having a very wet and windy mid-week period.
Quick thoughts on next weekend and looks cooler and generally more settled, at least for a time, but there’s uncertainty over specific synoptic features and developments at this stage…
Have a good week all!
M.
Reblogged this on naturestimeline and commented:
The effect this upcoming spell of weather will have on Phenology events will be most interesting. More especially in the South of the United Kingdom as Matt Hugo, where the highest, potentially record breaking Temperatures are set to occur. Given some sunshine, Bees, Butterflies and Blooms will be the most likely candidates, alongisde the early migrant birds brought in by the Southwesterly flow. Interesting times ahead.
Tony Powell